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Grand National Trends | Future Form

In the last decade, no Grand National winner has secured equal success on their next start



Many Clouds ridden by Leighton Aspell celebrates winning the Crabbie's Grand National Chase on Grand National Day of the Crabbies Grand National Festival at Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool Antepost

On this Tuesday afternoon and penultimate day of March, the Grand National Festival nears ever closer with April on the horizon.

With the clock ticking and the big race almost here for the first time in two years, we’re going to breakdown some trends over the following 11 days based on the last decade of the contest.

While it won’t help you make your selection for the 2021 renewal, an interesting statistic in the aftermath is that no winner of the previous 9 editions of the race has gone onto win their very next start.

In fact, you’d have to go back to 2003 winner Monty’s Pass to find a National winner who would also pick up a gold medal next time out.

Remarkably, the Jimmy Mangan would win the Liverpool feature under Barry Geraghty over the then extended four-and-a-half mile trip before winning a Stakes race at Cork two months later, spanning a distance of one mile and six furlongs.

Paul Nicholls’ 2012 winner Neptune Collonges did retire, but the eight victors that sandwiched his Merseyside success all failed to get past the post first on their next outings.

watch: neptune collonges’ 2012 grand national win was his last appearance on a race track [credit: racing tv]

Don’t Push It, famous for giving AP McCoy, Jonjo O’Neill and JP McManus all their first taste of victory in the race, pulled up in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham eight months on, while Ballabriggs endured a tough time of it in the Premier Chase after an 11-month lay-off.

Don’t Push It’s Grand National heroics would prove to be his final victory, although he would finish a mighty third in the 2011 renewal behind Ballabriggs

Surprise 66-1 outsider Auroras Encore was unable to land the National double when pulling up in the Scottish equivalent at Ayr 14 days from his finest hour, with Pineau De Re failing to fire back over timber at Prestbury Park.

The beloved Many Clouds had lumps of weight to give in the Charlie Hall and was last home, with 2016 hero Rule The World outclassed in a Punchestown Grade One.

One For Arthur unseated at the first at the scene of his greatest triumph 20 months on from his moment in the sun, with even the legendary Tiger Roll suffering defeats when next on the course after his memorable duel successes.

Aintree Racecourse, Aintree, UK. 6th Apr, 2019. The 2019 Grand National horse racing festival, day 3; Davy Russell acknowledges the applause of the crowd after winning the Grand National on Tiger Roll Credit: Action Plus Sports/Alamy Live News
The legendary Tiger Roll was beaten at Cheltenham and Navan after his 2018 and 2019 Grand National victories, respectively

Will our 2021 winner buck the trend in the wake of their Aintree glory?

Dominic Chapman is senior content writer at Low6 with a passion for horse racing. He provides a NAP and NB every day throughout the week on selected National Hunt and Flat cards in both Britain and Ireland. Additionally, he hosts the Paddock Picks Podcast with former Welsh Grand National-winning pilot, Charlie Poste - the pair interviewing and discussing current racing topics with a special guest every week.